Energy sector AI returns grow as infrastructure pressures mount, says ADNOC, XRG and Microsoft research

ADNOC, XRG and Microsoft research finds agentic AI deployment more than doubled, while only 52% of leaders are confident existing infrastructure can meet rising AI-driven electricity demand

AI investment is beginning to deliver financial returns across the global energy industry, but confidence in the infrastructure needed to support its growing electricity demand remains unchanged, according to research from ADNOC, XRG and Microsoft.

The third annual Powering Possible report, titled Energy Resilience in the Intelligence Era, found that 63% of respondents expect returns on existing AI investments to cover or exceed their costs. Expectations rise to 89% for future investments.

Published on 29 October, the 2026 report draws on a survey of almost 400 senior energy and finance leaders. Its findings point to a shift from experimentation towards operational deployment, with 62% of energy leaders now ranking AI among their top two corporate priorities, compared with 42% in 2025. Almost nine in ten respondents, or 89%, increased AI spending over the past year.

Agentic AI moves into operations
The share of organisations deploying integrated agentic AI workflows more than doubled from 15% to 33%, while those still piloting isolated applications fell from 35% to 15%.

Physical operations are also becoming a focus for deployment. Among energy-industry respondents, 60% are piloting or deploying autonomous and robotic systems for activities ranging from infrastructure inspections to hazardous tasks.

Dr Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, ADNOC Managing Director and Group CEO and Executive Chairman of XRG, said: “AI is creating significant new opportunities for the energy industry to drive greater value, strengthen resilience and improve safety and reliability.”

“At ADNOC, we are embedding AI, robotics and advanced technology across our operations to optimize every barrel, every molecule and every megawatt we produce. As AI scales, energy and technology must advance together.”

Reliability becomes a stronger measure of value
Energy leaders are increasingly assessing AI’s contribution through supply stability and reliability. The share identifying this as its most important contribution rose from 26% in 2025 to 39% in 2026.

Cost savings remain a consideration, although the proportion naming them as AI’s leading contribution declined from 19% to 13%. Meanwhile, 86% of leaders said global energy supply had become more complex and harder to predict over the past five years.

The report also found that 71% of energy leaders expect AI to accelerate the sector’s progress towards more sustainable energy production. Optimising power flows, dispatch and balancing was identified by 57% of respondents as the area where AI could make the greatest contribution to the energy transition.

Infrastructure confidence fails to keep pace
Growing adoption is bringing additional pressure on energy systems. Nearly three-quarters of leaders, or 74%, expect AI to increase energy consumption by 2030. However, only 52% are confident existing infrastructure can meet AI-driven electricity demand, unchanged from 2025.

Grid modernisation and smart-grid technologies emerged as the leading investment priority for supporting AI growth, cited by 67% of respondents, followed by energy storage at 42%.

Confidence varies considerably across markets. Existing infrastructure was considered capable of meeting AI-driven demand by 74% of leaders in Brazil and 70% in India, compared with 40% in the United States and 38% in the United Kingdom.

The findings highlight the need for energy and digital infrastructure investment to advance together, supported by cybersecurity, trusted AI-ready data, common standards, governance and workforce skills.

Brad Smith, Vice Chair and President of Microsoft, said: “As AI becomes embedded in the sectors that underpin the global economy, the measure of progress will not be adoption alone, but whether it delivers lasting value while earning public trust. In the energy sector, where reliability and security are fundamental, that requires strong governance, clear accountability and sustained investment in people and skills. Innovation at scale must be matched by responsibility at the same scale.”

Powering Possible 2026 has been published ahead of the fourth ENACT Majlis in Abu Dhabi, which will bring together leaders from energy, technology, finance and government to examine the development of a more resilient and integrated energy system. The report also precedes ADIPEC 2026, scheduled to take place in Abu Dhabi from 2–5 November.