GSMA Intelligence recently forecast that global 6G connections would reach 2.4 billion users in 2035, marking a steady rise from approximately 50 million at the end of 2030 after initial launches.
In its latest mobile technology forecast, the research arm of the GSMA tipped adoption of the technology to increase steadily, accounting for 0.5% of all global mobile connections by the end of 2030.
It expects connections to hit 275 million by the end of 2031 and nearly 740 million in 2032.
During 2033, 6G will reach the 1 billion connections milestone, ending the year at 1.3 billion before climbing to 1.9 billion in 2034 and 2.4 billion in 2035.
GSMA Intelligence believes two phases will shape the first 6G cycle. From 2030 to 2032, its rollout will be characterised by initial launches and ecosystem development. From 2033 onwards, the technology will begin to operate at a global scale.
The growth of 6G is not expected to come at the expense of 5G, with the latter still forecast to account for around 60% of global mobile connections by the end of 2035, compared with 23% for 6G.
Milestone
China “will inevitably have a significant influence” on the global 6G numbers given its scale, noted GSMA Intelligence, with the country set to account for more than half the connections by 2035.
However, it will not be unique in reaching this level of adoption, with “several of the world’s leading mobile markets forecast to have around half of connections on 6G” by the middle of the decade.
Matthew Iji, head of data modelling and forecasting at GSMA Intelligence, said the forecast for 2035 should be seen as a milestone, not the end point for 6G.
“By 2035, 6G will have moved firmly into the global mobile technology mix, but it will coexist with a much larger 5G base and with 4G still playing an important role in many markets”, he said. “This coexistence is likely to be one of the defining characteristics of the early 6G era”.
Source: Mobile World Live
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